Insights
Why some countries are shrinking
More than thirty countries now lose population most years. The mechanics are simple to state and hard to reverse: fewer births than deaths, sometimes worsened by net emigration.
Take Bosnia and Herzegovina: a crude birth rate near 7.7 per 1,000 against a death rate near 13.5 means the natural change is deeply negative, and emigration adds to the decline. Japan is the archetype — a death rate that now comfortably exceeds its birth rate, and over 30% of people aged 65 or older in some projections.
Ageing is the engine
Once a population's age pyramid tilts old, decline becomes self-reinforcing for decades: fewer women of childbearing age means fewer births even if fertility recovers.
Decline is not automatically bad — it can ease housing and resource pressure — but it strains pensions and healthcare, which is why shrinking countries care so much about productivity and migration policy.